High and Dry

Wait too long to consider the potential impact of diminishing 
statewide water supplies and your operation could be left in the dust.

by Wes Ishmael

 A sea of sunsets and miles of chance stand between today and the year 2050. If the recently-adopted Texas state water plan is within sniffing distance of accurate, though, plenty of hard choices about who gets water for what will be made between now and then. 

"I think the prudent feedyard, where possible, will attempt to reach out and tie up additional water supply, even if they don't need it today," says Bob Josserand, patriarch of AzTx Feeders headquartered at Hereford. 

That's not sky-is-falling rhetoric. As Hereford mayor, Josserand had a front row seat to the government-mandated water planning process that began in 1997. Already, Josserand says communities in the Llano Estacado Water Planning Area (Hereford lies within this planning area, one of 16 statewide) are teaming up to buy water rights, conduct survey work for potential interstate and intrastate pipelines, and beating the bushes for federal funding to build new infrastructure. As past president of both TCFA and NCBA, Josserand sees the state's water struggles from two distinct perspectives.

 "Without a doubt, as we move forward, particularly in regions served by the Ogallala Aquifer, we'll see some type of control from the local water districts," explains Josserand. "We'll see them say whether or not you can drill a well and where and how much water you can pump from it. That's a total reversal from what we have today."

H.P. (Bo) Brown Jr. agrees.  Brown, a Lubbock attorney, rancher, farmer and part owner of Coyote Lake Feedyard at Muleshoe, serves as chairman of the Region O, or Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group, and has been involved in the water planning issue from the beginning.

"The Ogallala will, in my judgment, never go dry," he says.  "On the other hand, the available supply in some areas will be such that it will make it uneconomical to produce for some uses."  That means many people are scrambling to ensure future water supplies.

"The future tells us there may be pumping restrictions based upon surface area ownership," he says.  "If you have a 30,000 head feedyard on 250 acres, how many water wells will be permitted in the future?  That will depend on water district rules.  Feedyards may want to strongly consider buying extra land to ensure sufficient underground water supplies and a reserve for the future."

It says a mouthful to Texas cattle feeders. In round numbers, about 85% of the fed cattle in Texas-some 5.25 million head-are located in either the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Area or the Panhandle Regional Water Planning Area; both regions mainly rely on the Ogallala.

"I think the day is coming when drilling a well in the Texas Panhandle will be difficult, to say the least," says Josserand. "Sooner or later we will be put in a position, if we don't have the water on our own property or on property we can buy, of having to figure out how to get it some other way."

More People, Less Water

It boils down to this: Texas has an ocean of water-some 29.8 million AFY (Acre Feet per Year) of current surface and ground water. Unfortunately, only about half of these supplies are accessible or usable.

Throw another 20 million folks into the mix-the state's population is expected to double to more than 40 million between now and 2050-along with receding groundwater supplies and unpredictable but expected periodic droughts-and you've got projected water deficits in Cattle Feeding Country as early as 20 years from now.

According to a summary of the state plan-Water for Texas-2002-developed by the Regional Water Planning Groups and the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), "By 2050 almost 900 cities (representing 38% of projected population) and other water users will need to either reduce demand through conservation and/or drought management or by developing additional sources of water beyond those currently available to meet their needs during drought."

Even today, in times of drought, the report indicates 20% of existing irrigation needs and 7% of municipal demand cannot be met. "By 2050, if a drought occurred, 43% of municipal demand could not be satisfied with current sources," the report says.

Barring Mother Nature, don't count on significant water infusions. Ground water supplies are expected to continue to decline. Plus, regional water plans call for only eight new, major reservoirs (>5,000 AF storage) to be added to the existing 211 major reservoirs in the state by 2050. Spun differently, these new reservoirs take care of about 16% of the 7.5 million AFY projected shortfall in 2050.

To bridge the deficit, regional planning areas have submitted all kinds of recommendations, everything from conservation, to enhanced water technology to redistribution of existing surface water.

"It's big money if you've got water under you," says Frank Simms, owner of Carson County Feed Yard at Panhandle. Simms participated in the regional planning process for the Panhandle Water Planning Area. He's describing the growing reality of farmers and ranchers banding together to offer a block of water to municipal or other agricultural suitors.

Of course, Carla Daws, TWDB public information officer, points out that recommendations in the regional plans and state plan overall are just that. Besides, she says, based on unfolding reality and weather patterns, "It could be the regions find out they can consume more than they projected, or it might be the drought of record used for planning may not be anything compared to what actually happens."

Here's a glimpse of projected water supply and demand in the water planning areas that encompass the state's primary cattle feeding area:

»      Llano Estacado-21 counties (think in approximate terms of drawing a line east from Seminole to Post, then up to Matador and Silverton and finally over west of Hereford):

• Per capita water usage is expected to decrease, thanks in part to new technology, but an estimated increase in population from 447,781 in 2000 to 586,156 in 2050 means that total municipal use in the region is expected to increase 13.4%.

"Municipalities will be strongly encouraged to implement conservation measures- that's one of the immediate strategies adopted by the Region O planning group," Brown says.  "The priority set in Senate Bill 2 is for human consumption, then on parity, agricultural and industrial use," he adds.

"Keep in mind, however, that cities have the right of eminent domain.  They can take water, paying 'fair compensation,' of course, for the welfare of their populace.  That's a statutory, constitutional right."

• Water for manufacturing use is expected to double and water for steam power is expected to more than double. Water for livestock use is expected to double due to anticipated increases in hog and dairy operations and expansion of existing feedyards.

• Water for mining (oil and gas) is expected to be cut by better than half and water for irrigation is expected to decline from 3.6 million AFY in 2000 to 2.5 million AFY in 2050 due to increased irrigation efficiency, declining well yields and economic signals.

• Overall, the regional plan calls for reduced demand, from 3.8 million AFY in 2000 to 2.7 million AFY in 2050. Even so, by 2050 28 cities in the region are projected to be short on water, ranging from 74 AFY at Whiteface (Cochran County) to 2,717 AFY at Hereford (in Deaf Smith County). In sum, according to the regional water plan, "This means by 2050 the region would be able to supply only 93% of the projected water demands unless new supply development or other water management strategies are implemented."`

»    Panhandle-21 counties (as the crow flies, start at Canyon, draw a 30° angle northwest to the state line, then a line southeast from Canyon to Childress):

• Per capita water usage is expected to decrease, in part, due to new technology and water conservation efforts, but an estimated increase in population from 379,018 in 2000 to 522,072 in 2050 calls for an overall increase in regional demand for municipal use.

• Currently, available supply exceeds regional demand by 380,000 AFY, but total regional demand is expected to surpass available supply beginning in 2020. The plan projects a need for 519,505 AFY for municipal use. Amarillo and Canyon are the cities cited as having the water rights necessary to avoid shortages.

• Water used for manufacturing is projected to increase and water for irrigation to remain stable. The plan estimates water for livestock operations will more than double by 2050, due to an anticipated increase in hog and dairy operations and expansion of existing feedyards.

Closer To Home

For cattle feeders, overall, the good news is that cattle feeding doesn't require much water, especially compared to the return. "We use an incredibly small amount of water in the region, yet what we do use we turn into a large economic impact," explains Ben Weinheimer, TCFA regulatory manager. Today he says cattle feeding accounts for approximately 1.1% of all water used in the Llano Estacado and Panhandle regions; it's projected to grow to 1.9% by 2050. While the extra demand reflects additional cattle feeding in the area, some of the percentage has to do with a lower total demand of water.

Yet, for someone in town wondering why he can't water his tulips, agricultural water usage can appear to be at least a five-humped camel. For instance, in regions like those mentioned above, irrigation accounts for better than 90% of the total water use.

"I was astounded at how much water agriculture uses compared to everything else," says Simms. But he adds, "Agricultural irrigation could totally change based on economics. If energy costs really escalate again, you might see irrigation really shut off and usage go down. That's something none of us know."

If irrigation declines for any host of reasons, Josserand believes cattle feeders will still have the grain they need, but may have to start thinking differently when it comes to roughage.

Josserand explains, "Ten years ago I would have said losing irrigation would have been devastating to Panhandle cattle feeders." Today, our capability to bring grain in from the Midwest by the trainload has made Midwestern grain competitive with local supplies.  However, a cutback in irrigation could put some strain on the ability of feedyards in the Texas Panhandle to utilize traditional roughage sources, Josserand says.

But, already Josserand points out alternatives to corn silage and alfalfa, like cane silage and hay, are proving their mettle; roughages that don't require near the amount of water.

Planning's the Thing

This kind of handwriting on the ditch bank might have been part of the impetus for state lawmakers to pass Senate Bill 1, then later 2, which directed the state for the first time to develop a water plan focused on including grassroots users in the process. Thus, the regional design, which divided the state into 16 water planning areas or regions.

The process required each region to submit a balance sheet of current water demand and supply, along with projections through 2050. Planning groups used drought of record as the baseline; in other words, here are the needs and supplies based upon a significant drought. TWDB then used these 16 regional plans as the foundation for the statewide plan adopted by legislators in December (full details are available at www.twdb.state.tx.us). State lawmakers will use this plan as a guiding document as they make laws impacting water development and usage in the state.

Although the current state plan is the seventh in the state's history, Daws explains, "It's the first time we have ever developed a plan this way…We think it shows an immense amount of cooperation between regions."

Indeed, before the state plan was drafted, the process encompassed more than three years, 900 public meetings and countless people.  TWDB held 26 public meetings and 10 videoconferences to obtain public comment on the draft state plan prior to finalization.

The regional process is an advantage compared to the past because it offers us the opportunity to put forth real-world data and to identify within a given species of livestock what our current needs are and what is projected for future use," says Weinheimer.

Whether folks agree with recommendations made in the plan, most say the process is a vast improvement.

"This finally focused the state and residents of this state on the fact that water is an extremely precious resource to us. We don't have enough, particularly in light of projected population growth," emphasizes Josserand. "It says to cattle feeders specifically, 'Guys, you are an integral part of the food chain and you will be treated fairly."

Besides, this is one of those living documents. "Just because it's in the water plan doesn't mean it's going to happen," explains Daws. "State water planning happens every five years, but the regional planning process is continuous." Before the ink was dry on the 2002 plan, regional groups were already at work on the regional plans that will anchor the 2007 state plan.

At the very least, perhaps the process can minimize the prophetic accuracy of cowboy humorist, Will Rogers' immortal observation: "Whiskey's for drinkin'; water's for fightin'."

"Ultimately, the state is going to have to look at things and decide where it's important (that) the water be (located) for use…In the future, the need for water in metropolitan areas will override the issue of who owns the water," says Josserand. "Feedyards need to know how much water they've got, how much they're using and be able to justify it."

Weinheimer puts it this way: "Overall, we need to be aware of how important water supply and usage is becoming. Everybody is under even more of a microscope when it comes to the water they're using and whether or not it's being used for beneficial use."

Editor's Note-Wes Ishmael is a freelance ag writer in Fort Worth.